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"Foundations of Power Transition Theory" published on by Oxford University Press.

In this paper we identify and critique the key propositions of power transition theory. We find little support for any of power transition theory's main empirical implications. Contrary to most versions of the theory, we fin d that the European and international systems almost never have been characterized by hegemony. No state has achieved a position that allowed it for any extended period to order the international system to suit its interests at the expense of the other major powers. Power transitions are remarkably rare, they seldom occur as the result of differential rates of economic growth, and have most often occurred peacefully. Power transitions are more often the results of wars, rather than the causes of them. Wars between rising and dominant powers are infrequent and are not waged by either side primarily in the effort to defend or revise the international order in their favor. Finally, we find that war rarely resolves the fundamental conflicts of interest caused by power transitions.

"Power Transition Theory and the Essence of Revisionism" published on by Oxford University Press.

This article tests the power transition theory using relative military power within a dyad pair. The author hypothesizes that when a dyad pair achieves relative military power parity, the two states are likely to initiate war. Furthermore, when a dyad pair no longer maintains relative military power parity, the probability of war between the two states decreases. Although the sample population used to test this hypothesis is small (n=3), the mixed-method analysis indicates support to the power transition theory. Furthermore, results are more substantial when using military expenditure and surplus domestic when compared to results using military personnel and surplus domestic product. No statistically significant difference exists (p=.99) when comparing military expenditure and surplus domestic product with a combination of military expenditure, military personnel, and surplus domestic product. These results indicate that relative military power possesses the potential to provide researchers an additional quantitative measure to test the power transition theory. Although these initial results are promising, further research is required to test a larger sample population of dyads.

Does the rise of China inexorably anticipate the onset of global instability or even a great power war? Today, routine comparisons are made between a rising China with that of Germany over 100 years ago. Organski, in his original explication of power transition theory, however, was far more cautious. Despite predicting the remarkable rise of China nearly 60 years ago in his book (1958), World Politics, Organski was circumspect in predicting a great power war involving China and the United States. This article examines the development of power transition theory by a variety of scholars since Organski. We draw on these developments of power transition theory to analyze the implications of the rise of China. We also introduce the other articles that compose this Special Issue of International Area Studies Review on power transition theory and the rise of China.

Bu makale büyük güçler hiyerarşisinin diğer devletler arasındaki çatışma ilişkilerine etkisini incelemektedir. Güç geçişi teorisi içinde büyük devletlerin görece daha az güçlü devletler arasındaki ilişkilere olan etkisini incelemek için teorik bir yapı oluşturduğu için önemlidir. Güç geçişi teorisi büyük devletlerin diğer devletler arasındaki savaş- barış ilişkilerinde müdahalede bulunmadığını varsaymaktadır. Küresel kısıtlama modeli güç geçişi teorisi temelli çoklu hiyerarşiler ve bölgesel kısıtlama modellerine dayanmaktadır. Modelin farklılığı uluslararası sistemin bölgesel aktörler arasında savaş olup olmayacağına etkisinin incelenmesidir. Açıklayıcı değişken olarak küresel sınırlama uluslararası sistemdeki en güçlü beş devletin etkisine işaret etmektedir. Bu etki büyük güçlerin güçsüz taraf ve güçlü tarafa yaptıkları silah transferi oranı ile ölçülecektir. ; This paper investigates the influence of the great power hierarchy on minor power dyad conflict relations. The papers importance lies in providing a theoretical framework for studying great power interference in dyadic relations among minor powers within the power transition theory. Power transition theory assumes great power non-interference in war and peace dynamics among small power dyads. Building on the previous power transition based models of multiple hierarchy and regional hierarchy constraint, the global constraint model introduces the impact of the international system on the absence and existence of war among small powers within regions. Global constraint, the proposed explanatory variable, refers to the impact of the five most powerful states in the international system, and is operationalized as the ratio of arms transfers to the weaker dyad nation to that of the stronger one by the great powers. Key Words: Power transition theory, war onset, great power interference, arms transfers